December 22, 2009
Who Else Might We Pick Off?
The ACU ratings are not the be-all/end-all of political scoring, but I like 'em. Here are House Democrats with a lifetime ACU score over 40.
Unfortunately that means no freshman on this list since the scores aren't in yet.
Griffith's predecessor, Democrat Bud Cramer, had an ACU score of 46.62, and the district has a Cook PVI of R+12
For reference, Senators Snowe and Collins are 47.88 and 49.55 respectively, and Ben Nelson is 47.26.
These are sorted by ACU score, so one would imagine the top of the list is more fertile ground than the bottom. In the past I've observed that most truly moderate (as opposed to liberal) Republicans score no lower than 60. So my working thesis is that going the other way, any Democrats higher than 40 or 50 potentially ought to be in play.
In my own home state of Pennsylvania, a guy with a 66 ACU in an R+20 district would be a respectably conservative-to-moderate Republican, so I think the House Republicans have some phone calls to make.
Unfortunately that means no freshman on this list since the scores aren't in yet.
Griffith's predecessor, Democrat Bud Cramer, had an ACU score of 46.62, and the district has a Cook PVI of R+12
For reference, Senators Snowe and Collins are 47.88 and 49.55 respectively, and Ben Nelson is 47.26.
These are sorted by ACU score, so one would imagine the top of the list is more fertile ground than the bottom. In the past I've observed that most truly moderate (as opposed to liberal) Republicans score no lower than 60. So my working thesis is that going the other way, any Democrats higher than 40 or 50 potentially ought to be in play.
In my own home state of Pennsylvania, a guy with a 66 ACU in an R+20 district would be a respectably conservative-to-moderate Republican, so I think the House Republicans have some phone calls to make.
Posted by: JoeCollins at
05:37 PM
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1
I would love it if my critter flipped (PA10) but there's no way he's going to.
Posted by: alexthechick at December 22, 2009 05:58 PM (bQ5xy)
2
Mine won't flip either I can guarantee, but there's no fucking reason we can't take the seat in 2010. I'll be glad when we vote him out, I knew he'd be Pelosi's bitch.
Posted by: doubleplusundead at December 22, 2009 10:23 PM (SyA30)
3
I dunno. At what point do we nuke as many blue dogs as possible?
Sadly, I live in Russ Carnahan's district, so that won't be switching any time soon
Sadly, I live in Russ Carnahan's district, so that won't be switching any time soon
Posted by: eddiebear at December 23, 2009 12:26 AM (duVkX)
4
While I would love to see Melancon flip, I don't see it happening. When Obama came to New Orleans for, what, two hours, he was full of praise for that dipshit, and the liberals in his district are eating it up.
Posted by: Ember at December 23, 2009 01:00 AM (LdRAG)
5
SC being pretty deep red, I'm not in much of a position to have anyone "flip". But Lindsey Graham has got to go. Jim DeMint we're pretty proud of.
Posted by: MikeD at December 23, 2009 10:40 AM (FkL60)
6
These are sorted by ACU score, so one would imagine the top of the list
is more fertile ground than the bottom. In the past I've observed that
most truly moderate (as opposed to liberal) Republicans score no lower
than 60. So my working thesis is that going the other way, any
Democrats higher than 40 or 50 potentially ought to be in play.
Posted by: eluxury shopping at January 05, 2012 03:45 AM (tzzlH)
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