I always get a chuckle out of how the Democrats and the MSM (BIRM) treat polling data: if it is good for Democrats, then hype, hype hype, while bad polling gets buried.

In that vein, I doubt this poll will get much play in the MSM. I learned my lessons in the past not to scream and hop up and down over one particular poll. As Ace and others have stated, trendlines and the like are more important than a day to day +1,-1 type of movement.

So, what trendlines are we seeing?

So the Democratic party is more or less as popular in these swing district as the Republican party. And voters with a Republican Congressman are noticeably 'warmer' toward their Representative than those represented by Democrats. The Democratic party has lost 13 points since April. The Democratic incumbents have lost 9 points, and the GOP incumbents have lost just 5 points.

I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for Congress next year, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you be voting for - (DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE)
                                  Dem District     GOP District
Democratic Candidate.........48                  39
Republican Candidate.........45                   48

So the Democratic incumbents have a 3 point edge in their own districts, while the GOP incumbents hold a 9 point advantage. The Democrats have lost 10 points from their April margin, while the GOP has gained 3.

The poll also shows how much ground Democrats have lost on the issues. In April they held a 16 point edge in these battleground districts on handling the economy; now they trail by 3. Democrats had a 24 point edge on health care; now the two parties are tied. Republicans have improved their edge on taxes and on spending.

In both Republican and Democratic districts, a plurality of voters say 'I really want to be able to vote for a Republican for Congress because at least he or she won't be a rubber stamp for national Democrats and all of their wasteful spending.'

In both Republican and Democratic districts, a plurality of voters say 'President Obama's economic policies have run up a record federal deficit while failing to end the recession or slow the record pace of job losses.'

It's early, but now only the GOP Leadership could stand in the way of big GOP Gains.

Posted by: eddiebear at 11:35 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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