Russia to Belarus: Nice Country You Got There

Wouldn't want anyfing to get broke, would ya?

Russia's ambassador to Belarus said on Tuesday that Moscow could not understand why its western neighbour, nominally a close ally, had failed to offer the Kremlin open support in its conflict with Georgia. Belarus, whose President Alexander Lukashenko is accused by the West of crushing fundamental rights, has portrayed itself as a close Russian ally since the 1990s.

The two neighbours are committed to forming a merged post-Soviet "union state", though this has been put on the backburner, especially since 2007 when they quarrelled over energy prices.

"We are somewhat perplexed by the modest silence of the Belarussian side. You need to express yourself more clearly on such issues, especially as we have a union state," ambassador Alexander Surikov told a briefing.

For those of you who like to keep track of these things, the Russian invasion of Georgia is the most important story of the 21st century thus far. Yes, more important globally than 9/11. Here's why. After the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, the world celebrated the end of the Cold War and the surging dominance of freedom and prosperity for all the world.

Dozens of ex-Soviet republics began building capitalist economies and freely-elected governments. Though slow in coming, prosperity did start to arrive in the more free, industrious countries. Well, there was another element common to those countries that prospered most. They were the ones least tied to the Russian government.

Countries like Belarus maintained very tight relations with the Russian Empire (we're not calling it anything but that until Putin is in a grave, at least) and was essentially a puppet state. "Legitimate" actions in Chechnya further demonstrated that the Bear's desire for empire and prominence hadn't abated just because the Politburo was no longer in charge.

Now, Putin's end-game has been made public and we are in a very dire situation. Russia claims they were only responding to Georgian aggression (that would be hilarious if it weren't so horrible) but, of course, their 'response' could never have been manufactured on the fly in a single day. Ask anyone:

Let's be clear: For all that US commentators and diplomats are still chattering about Russia's "response" to Georgia's actions, the Kremlin spent months planning and preparing this operation. Any soldier above the grade of private can tell you that there's absolutely no way Moscow could've launched this huge ground, air and sea offensive in an instantaneous "response" to alleged Georgian actions.

As I pointed out Saturday, even to get one armored brigade over the Caucasus Mountains required extensive preparations. Since then, Russia has sent in the equivalent of almost two divisions - not only in South Ossetia, the scene of the original fighting, but also in separatist Abkhazia on the Black Sea coast.

The Russians also managed to arrange the instant appearance of a squadron of warships to blockade Georgia. And they launched hundreds of air strikes against preplanned targets.

As is mentioned in this article, the cynisism involved in Russian actions is chilling. What we are witnessing is Russia's attempt at a return to empire with Putin as Tzar. I wouldn't make such a bold statement without the support of several events in the last several years including assassinations, violating airspace and other hostile, intimidating acts from Moscow. This hasn't happened in a vacuum.

Now we have a newly independent nation (and staunch ally of the United States) with Russia's boot on their throat and not one nation has lifted a finger to help them. Reigns are being tightened diplomatically on existing satellite states (Belarus) while nations who grew too independent are being reminded who is really in charge. To Russia, their sovereignty was a cute phase but it is time for them to stop playing around and come back into the fold.

Georgia is begging for help and the west absolutely must respond. Not with words or removing Russia from the G8 but with, at least, direct aid. If that isn't sufficient, Russia must be stopped militarily. Russian conquest of Georgia must not be allowed to stand any more than Iraq's conquest of Kuwait. Georgia is just the first domino in a long string of ex-Soviet nations on Putin's wishlist and it must not be allowed to fall. If the west allows an ally to be wholly consumed by the Bear, it will not sate the appetite any more than Czechoslovakia appeased Hitler.

That's a much bigger story than terrorism to me. This is the kind of story that leads to world war. Thing is, maybe it should.

We must stop them even if it means a real conflict with Russia. If there is to be a battle with the Russians (and now I think it is unavoidable in the long term) then let that battle be now.

Update: Or not (pick one). I don't buy it personally. Neither does Georgia.

Update: Insight from Stratfor:

The Russians have announced a halt to military operations. This is in large part because they have achieved their political goals — they have demonstrated their ability to carry out a complex military operation, and they have shown that the United States and Europe cannot respond militarily. What the Russians want to do now is replace Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili. If they occupy Tbilisi, they make him a martyr. If, however, they simply halt operations, in due course recriminations will begin inside Georgia over his decision to attack South Ossetia and his lack of preparedness for the consequences.

The Russians also know that a prolonged occupation of Georgia would inevitably result in guerrilla warfare against the occupying forces. The Russians were bled by the Chechens, and they do not want to risk a long, draining occupation of Georgia. Their goal was not to end Georgian sovereignty; rather, it was to force the Georgians to readjust their foreign policy away from the United States and toward Russia. Regardless of personnel changes, Georgia will be enormously more careful in its actions in the future, and much less confident of its relationship with the United States.

Sounds about right. More importantly, it shows Putin and the Georgians that the Russians do own the ex-Soviet states in reality if not on paper. I kind of hope the Georgians keep fighting.

Posted by: Moron Pundit at 11:19 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
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