January 21, 2010
The actual story is that today’s proposal is totally new, far more radical than anything Obama and his top officials, mainly chief economic adviser Larry Summers and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, have proposed in the past. Indeed, they’ve been actively avoiding it for the better part of their first year in office. The president was gracious enough today to credit the man responsible for it—“we’re calling it the Volcker rule after the tall guy behind me,” he said—but what Obama didn’t say was that, until now, former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker has been virtually ignored by his administration.I would guess that the other thing that wasn't said was a great big Fuck You to the GOP for having the temerity to contest a safe Dem seat and win. Even though it's false (look at contribution records) the perception is that Wall Street is in bed with the GOP, so here's a little bit of payback. I wouldn't be surprised if today's decision by the Supreme Court didn't figure into this a bit also. In any case it's a temper tantrum that is going to hurt us all.
(...)
If adopted, along with another proposal to limit the consolidation of the financial sector into giant firms—essentially what’s happened over the past two decades—Obama’s new plan would dramatically change Wall Street as we know it. It would have an effect not unlike that of the Glass-Steagall law of 1933, which forced big banks like J.P. Morgan to spin off their investment-banking sides into new firms (in that case, Morgan Stanley).
Why did Obama decide to pursue this break-up-the-bank plan? According to the senior administration officials, he grew increasingly outraged by Wall Street’s brazenness in going back to business as usual in the year since the crisis. “As we have come out of the crisis and seen major financial institutions make significant profits on their proprietary trading and using the [federal] safety net to do that,” said one official, “it persuaded the president it was worth looking into this.”
What he didn’t say was that Obama’s been losing altitude in the polls fast, and one of his problems is a perceived softness on Wall Street in the face of public outrage.
source
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Posted by: jukin at January 21, 2010 04:05 PM (vkkNZ)
I was at Ace's when I saw this post and said, "Wow, deja vu, I swear I just read this but not here."
And then I got to the part about "cross-posted at.."
Made me laugh it did.
Posted by: Veeshir at January 21, 2010 04:49 PM (2XPBg)
Those threads can be hilarious.
It helps if you have people egging them on. I'm sure Ace's regulars are having a field day over there.
Posted by: Veeshir at January 21, 2010 05:30 PM (2XPBg)
Posted by: Veeshir at January 21, 2010 05:32 PM (2XPBg)
Looking at this announcement the wrong way is a mistake, because this is the first smart thing to come out of the Obama administration. Now Obama may be throwing a hissy-fit, but I really don't care about his motivations. To date, he's been a huge enabler of Too Big to Fail, moral hazard, and the taxpayer bailouts that ensue. This would be a big step towards fixing these and other economic issues that have resulted in the FIRE (Financial, Insurance, Real Estate) bubble economy of the past 15 years.
As for the stock market, its current valuations are insane -- just as bad as at the 2007 peak. This is partly due to the market assuming an endless flow of taxpayer money into any corporation able to buy off a handful of politicians. The stock market being down on sensible economic reform is a given, as reform means forcing corporations to eat their own mistakes rather than go to Uncle Sugar for a handout on the taxpayer dime.
Don't forget, when Reagan brought in Volcker at the Fed to clean up in the early 80s, we went through a painful two year recession getting things un-fucked before starting in on huge growth. The current underlying economic situation is far worse than the late 70s, due to a much higher national (government plus private) debt to GDP ratio (there are other issues, but that's the big one).
Of course, the biggest part of the mess is the government itself. If the GOP is smart, it will take Obama's proposals and say, "Great idea, now if we could have Geithner's and Summer's resignations, Bernacke denied confirmation, and Barney Frank taken out back and shot, we might have a good start!" Obama, with his love of government, is bound to fuck up proper financial reform, but the GOP needs to do more than just root on Wall Street.
Oh, and this kind of thing is the exact reason why I stopped reading Ace for the most part. The amount of economic ignorance and rank partisanship over there is pathetic. I did appreciate his recent mea-culpa on being in the bag for the GOP since mid-2008, however. Not surprisingly, that's exactly when I stopped reading/commenting there.
Posted by: Hermit Dave at January 21, 2010 08:52 PM (WhFvm)
It seems to me that the only difference would be that different people would be screwed but that the economy couldn't be any worse off.
Posted by: Veeshir at January 21, 2010 09:04 PM (aj/eF)
This is the first good policy Obama has proposed.
http://wcvarones.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-obama.html
Posted by: W.C. Varones at January 21, 2010 09:59 PM (0vTD+)
Would we be worse of if those banks that were "too big to fail" had failed?
In short, we'd be better off if we had let them go down, and I said as much at the time. As things stand, all the major banks (with the possible exception of Goldman Sachs) are still technically bankrupt, and are surviving on the largess of the taxpayer and Fed expansion of the base money supply (which eventually come down to the same thing, just through a different mechanism).
The US simply has far too much debt to GDP, and as a nation (government, corporate, and household combined) are unable to service that debt. Instead of taking an ever-increasing amount of private debt onto the Government's balance sheet (which is what has been happening), those who took too much risk should have been made to eat their own losses. Instead, we've seen a huge transfer of wealth from the taxpayer to the financial industry and other politically connected groups (such as the auto makers).
Not that we're alone in this mess. England and Japan are clearly worse off than us, while the Eurozone is a mixed bag (France is amazingly one of the financially healthier nations at the moment, while Greece could face a sovereign default at any time). However, unless we get our financial and economic house in order, we could easily go the way of Japan, and 20 years from the peak be even more in debt with an economy in the trash, and nothing to show for our 'efforts'.
Posted by: Hermit Dave at January 21, 2010 10:54 PM (WhFvm)
Posted by: doubleplusundead at January 21, 2010 11:43 PM (5zSpC)
I have no issue whatsoever with the Friedman-based quote above. It addresses how to deal with a financial panic, when the balance sheets of institutions are sound and the problem is lack of liquidity. Unfortunately, unlike in 1987, when Greenspan applied the same principle appropriately, the bank's balance sheets are an utter disaster.
Also, Bernacke's Fed has been doing far far more than repo and Govt.-debt-based monetization operations. He's been (illegally, according to a strict reading of the Fed charter) outright purchasing paper other than US Government Securities, such as MBS paper. Bernacke claims to be a student of the Great Depression and Friedman, but he's either the worst student ever or an outright crook using that as cover for his actions (I believe the latter).
I'm quite certain that Friedman never intended his theories to become a huge moral-hazard bailout excuse that would effectively crush the taxpayer. Also, I seriously doubt he would have approved of a long-term zero-interest rate policy, which screws savers at the expense of the failed risk-takers.
What should have been done? Appropriate liquidity operations to maintain the health of depositors, while forcing all the failed institutions into bankruptcy (over time, as there are simply too many to deal with at once), and leaving the risk where it belonged -- with the shareholders, bondholders, and management of the failed institutions.
Posted by: Hermit Dave at January 22, 2010 12:45 AM (WhFvm)
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