May 05, 2008
if mccain loses, will it be by a landslide?
Something I've been pondering, and I'm a bit concerned. As worthless as the GOP in Congress is, they're very slightly better than the Democrats, and there are a number of them who actually are decent. What I'm worried about more than anything is the GOP getting stomped downticket in the fall in a big enough way that we lose the filibuster. That's the nightmare scenario.
What has me worried is the potential for conservatives who are pissed off and hate McCain to stay home if it looks like he'll lose this fall. While many would go to the polls to vote downticket, many may stay home. I still think that if its Obama, McCain has this won, simply because Obama 's Marxism will be too repulsing for voters, if I'm wrong, we may have serious problems on our hands, here's what has me worried.
We saw how the media predicted Kerry would win in 2004, if its close, all media exit polls always favor Democrats, and they were in fairly aggressive propaganda mode to begin with. However, GOP voters were motivated in 2004, Bush hadn't completely pissed off the base yet, and GOP voters went to polls despite media propagandizing that we'd lose. We're all now familiar with the Republican Polling Penalty, we were motivated, we won. Huzzah.
2008 is a different animal. My concern is that if conservatives think the GOP is going to lose, they'll just stay home, as a "screw you!" sendoff to McCain and the RINOs, and we'll see a Democrat deluge. That conservatives will only support the GOP in November if they can win. I think if its a close race, media is going to have a much bigger impact on morale and GOP voter turnout than it did in 2004. Conservatives hate the GOP right now, hate McCain, and are only going to do the bare minimum to keep the Democrats at bay, and are looking for any opportunity to send a message to the GOP leadership.
Unfortunately, McCain is doing his absolute damnedest to help that potential scenario along by pissing on conservatives yet again, and giving them yet one more reason to walk away in November. This is part of why I cringe now every time McCain insists on doing these things, I see a potential disaster in the making, and doing things like meeting with shady groups like La Raza only makes it that much more likely.
It would be foolish to blame conservatives if this were to happen, McCain and the GOP know that you can only abuse your supporters and take them for granted for so long before they abandon you or start looking for opportunities to abandon you. I think McCain is going to be banking on the inability of the left to challenge him in the fall. My prediction, McCain will walk to first base or be the third strikeout with bases loaded.
What has me worried is the potential for conservatives who are pissed off and hate McCain to stay home if it looks like he'll lose this fall. While many would go to the polls to vote downticket, many may stay home. I still think that if its Obama, McCain has this won, simply because Obama 's Marxism will be too repulsing for voters, if I'm wrong, we may have serious problems on our hands, here's what has me worried.
We saw how the media predicted Kerry would win in 2004, if its close, all media exit polls always favor Democrats, and they were in fairly aggressive propaganda mode to begin with. However, GOP voters were motivated in 2004, Bush hadn't completely pissed off the base yet, and GOP voters went to polls despite media propagandizing that we'd lose. We're all now familiar with the Republican Polling Penalty, we were motivated, we won. Huzzah.
2008 is a different animal. My concern is that if conservatives think the GOP is going to lose, they'll just stay home, as a "screw you!" sendoff to McCain and the RINOs, and we'll see a Democrat deluge. That conservatives will only support the GOP in November if they can win. I think if its a close race, media is going to have a much bigger impact on morale and GOP voter turnout than it did in 2004. Conservatives hate the GOP right now, hate McCain, and are only going to do the bare minimum to keep the Democrats at bay, and are looking for any opportunity to send a message to the GOP leadership.
Unfortunately, McCain is doing his absolute damnedest to help that potential scenario along by pissing on conservatives yet again, and giving them yet one more reason to walk away in November. This is part of why I cringe now every time McCain insists on doing these things, I see a potential disaster in the making, and doing things like meeting with shady groups like La Raza only makes it that much more likely.
It would be foolish to blame conservatives if this were to happen, McCain and the GOP know that you can only abuse your supporters and take them for granted for so long before they abandon you or start looking for opportunities to abandon you. I think McCain is going to be banking on the inability of the left to challenge him in the fall. My prediction, McCain will walk to first base or be the third strikeout with bases loaded.
Posted by: doubleplusundead at
03:11 PM
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1
Add this little tidbit about the official (s)tragedy of the McShame campaign (H/T - Brad V/Try 2 Focus). Zombie Reagan's looking better and better.
Posted by: steveegg at May 05, 2008 04:49 PM (LvEFt)
2
He's gonna up losing unless the Democrats self destruct.
Posted by: doubleplusundead at May 05, 2008 05:31 PM (ZuzXA)
3
Unless McCain starts personally helping illegals across the border (not out of the realm of possibility with him), he'll beat Obama. I know I'm way out on the edge of the 'Obama is toast' crew, but I'm completely convinced he's unelectable.
Hillary, however, is an entirely different matter. She could well beat him, and is probably already a small favorite in that match up.
Posted by: Hermit Dave at May 05, 2008 07:36 PM (Tk5HT)
4
I agree that if its Obama, McCain probably wins, but on that outside chance conventional wisdom is wrong, there's gonna be problems.
Posted by: doubleplusundead at May 05, 2008 07:58 PM (ZuzXA)
5
I hate to sound like a broken record, but neither Obama or Hillary are even remotely electable. MSM hype is just that- hype. Polls? Yeah right.
Conservatives are a small minority of the Republican party, and even if they stay home, there's gonna be plenty of Democrats that will take their place by voting McCain.
No one considers how many Dems are going to flat out refuse to vote for a woman, or a black guy with a Muslim name. I think a lot of people are gonna be shocked when either one of them get spanked in the general.
Conservatives are a small minority of the Republican party, and even if they stay home, there's gonna be plenty of Democrats that will take their place by voting McCain.
No one considers how many Dems are going to flat out refuse to vote for a woman, or a black guy with a Muslim name. I think a lot of people are gonna be shocked when either one of them get spanked in the general.
Posted by: bmac at May 05, 2008 10:49 PM (oRVu1)
6
Yeah, I think Obama has the nom, and that he's ruined himself in PA will sink him, but in the unlikely scenario that there is a real race, I think he has problems.
Posted by: doubleplusundead at May 05, 2008 10:58 PM (ZuzXA)
7
Er, McCain has problems.
Posted by: doubleplusundead at May 05, 2008 10:58 PM (ZuzXA)
8
McCain has problems, sure, but the Dems have bigger problems, I think. Whichever of them wins the nomination, there's gonna be a contingent of the other's supporters who will either sit out or vote for McCain or a third party candidate out of spite.
And if Hillary manages to swipe the nomination from Obama, that contingent is going to be very loud and very, very angry. Not to mention self-destructive. They're calling for their people to "Re-create '68," after all, and '68 didn't work out too well for the Dems, did it?
McCain pisses me off in a lot of ways, but we need to remember what (non-zombie) Reagan told us (I paraphrase)--if there's somebody you agree with 80% of the time and disagree with 20% of the time, shouldn't you vote for them over the candidate who's the reverse of that?
And anyway, it's going to be fun to hear the lefties bitch for a while longer about "stolen" elections if McCain wins. The whiny little bitches.
And if Hillary manages to swipe the nomination from Obama, that contingent is going to be very loud and very, very angry. Not to mention self-destructive. They're calling for their people to "Re-create '68," after all, and '68 didn't work out too well for the Dems, did it?
McCain pisses me off in a lot of ways, but we need to remember what (non-zombie) Reagan told us (I paraphrase)--if there's somebody you agree with 80% of the time and disagree with 20% of the time, shouldn't you vote for them over the candidate who's the reverse of that?
And anyway, it's going to be fun to hear the lefties bitch for a while longer about "stolen" elections if McCain wins. The whiny little bitches.
Posted by: Sean M. at May 06, 2008 02:49 AM (e6v7s)
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