August 08, 2009
*Fires sixty guns into the air*
Sure, the U.S. continues to condemn Zelaya's ouster and still seeks mediation of the dispute through Costa Rican President Oscar Arias. But no U.S. sanctions means Hondurans have won.
Things could have worked out differently. Venezuela's Hugo Chavez first called for invading Honduras. That threat passed as it became clear Chavez couldn't project his power there.
Next, civil unrest was threatened by Zelaya. But Hondurans astounded the world by standing by their Congress, Supreme Court, attorney general, businesses and the church, all of which declared that Zelaya had violated the constitution and had to go.
Zelaya might have regained power, but only by becoming a dictator and ending Honduras' democracy. The people ended that.
The scariest outcome for Honduras was U.S. sanctions. They would have crushed the tiny country dependent on the U.S. for 80% of its trade. No sanctions, no Zelaya.
This isn't to say U.S. policymakers are happy or that the dispute is over. Honduras is still suspended from the Organization of American States, its trade has been disrupted, Venezuela's oil is still cut off, and its officials still can't get U.S. visas. But the worst is over. Whatever changes that come will be by Honduran consent alone.
The U.S. still supports Arias' mediation, and if that helps, good.
By ending the threats, talks can begin. Constructive solutions, like early elections or persuading Honduras' congress to add an impeachment law to its constitution, can now be put on the table.
Posted by: eddiebear at
10:08 AM
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