October 16, 2008

Obama campaign polling flying blind? Plus some thoughts on the debate and campaign

Interesting post at RedState.  Admittedly, the piece is based on hearsay, but the gist of this post is that the Obama campaign is nervous about the effect Palin may be having.  They have no idea who she is drawing in, or how many conservatives and others she's bringing back into play, and her presence is a big X factor in their polls that they're having trouble gauging.  We've also heard about leaks of internal polls that show Obama isn't nearly as ahead as the media and pollsters say he is, and who knows if the traditional "Republican poll deficit" is being taken into account in those as well.

One thing is for damn sure, if the media has been using bogus polls to try and boost Obama or demoralize us, and it turns out that we win, the nutroots are gonna lose. their. shit.  They think they've got this thing, and they're gonna be damned ugly (even by their standards) the next morning if they're buying their own bullshit and McCain winning this thing.  Actually, Zombie has an interesting piece that seems to fit in with this dynamic(I'm still reading it), and thinks it's gonna be a big drag on the left.

I was kind of where Ace was on the question of reporting the polls, I thought you had to report them and face the fact that McCain was losing this thing, but not wallow in pessimism like Eeyorepundit.  I think I'm moving toward the Treach camp on the polling question, better to just ignore them and do our thing, I think things are significantly closer than what is being reported. 

At this stage I'm more worried that the endless drumbeat of negativity and propaganda people are getting bombarded with is going to wear them down. That's across the board, from hardcore activists who are pounding the pavement to the squish who doesn't know a fucking thing about anyfuckingthing about the issues, policies or the candidates.  The Moron-in-Chief has noted in the past that when the GOP is in power the media levies a Republican Tax on the economy by talking it down with an endless barrage of economic horror stories.  I don't think this is any different. 

As for the debate itself, I missed the first 30 minutes (late shift...yay) I think McCain did good from what I saw.  As per Ace's view, McCain needed to smack around Obama for his connections with the assorted corrupt subprime kingpins, and explain why Obama's policies would exacerbate the problem and lead to bigger disasters down the road.  He did much better tonight on that score than he has in the past, the Moron-in-Chief doesn't think he did enough.  He could have done better, but he's improved a lot, and he was finally getting under Obama's skin like he needed to.  He's going to have to continue building the case, and chipping away at Obama on a host of other issues.

Unless this issue was in the first 30 minutes that I missed, I didn't see one question about the Second Amendment, and haven't seen it brought up once in debate.  That isn't a mistake, the media is avoiding the Second Amendment issue like the plague.  They're too scared to bring it up because they know it loses elections for them.  McCain and especially Palin and pro-2nd activists need to hammer Obama hard on this issue, especially in pro-2nd swing states.

Posted by: doubleplusundead at 02:56 AM | Comments (11) | Add Comment
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