October 28, 2008

Damn

DOW up nearly 900 points.  That's nearly 11%.

Now, maybe I'm an idiot but if consumer confidence is at its lowest point ever how is the market shooting through the roof?

I just don't understand economics.

Posted by: Moron Pundit at 03:04 PM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
Post contains 37 words, total size 1 kb.

1

First, don't confuse economics with the stock market, especially on a day-to-day basis.  Sure, it all relates in the long run, but there can be serious disconnects for long periods of time.

Second, the market reaction is often based on perception.  If enough people perceive that all the bad news is now out, it becomes time to buy.  This makes the stock market a leading economic indicator a lot of the time.

Finally, there's just buying pressure vs. selling pressure.  The daily supply and demand.  Many have been speculating that one or more big hedge funds have been unwinding recently, so if that selling has abated, there won't be much selling overhead, so you can get a big rally, often on fairly light volume.  There's also short covering, and various other buy/sell imbalances which can occur.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at October 28, 2008 03:13 PM (WhFvm)

2 Part of it is tied to the fact traders look to the Feds to help them out and at least appear to be doing something, irrespective of whether it is the right thing to do for the Free Market.

Posted by: eddiebear at October 28, 2008 03:14 PM (wnU1W)

3

It's not economics--it's people being dumb, panicky, animals which the media reinforces by feeding them a steady diet of doom and gloom.

The entire consumer confidence rating is meaningless--everyone just parrots what they 'know' is 'true': we're all fucked, end of story, even if the evidence isn't exactly comporting with that belief (and I stress the word belief because it isn't usually grounded in anything akin to objective reality).

Posted by: ECM at October 28, 2008 03:15 PM (q3V+C)

4

Also, don't look the MSM to provide commentary on the markets that is any more intelligent than their commentary on any other subject.  You'd be better off relating celebrity news stories to the market movements, which would actually be a fun daily blog feature:

 

The market rallied strongly today on news that musician Bono was on vacation in St. Tropez with a couple of 19-year-old babes.  "When I saw that story I knew we were going to be up huge and I jumped in with both feet," said NYSE floor trader Joseph T. Finkleburger.

"Bono is starting to look like Robin Williams and he hasn't done anything worth shit for years, so if he can still score the babes, there's hope for all of us.  That's the kind of message that can turn this economy around.  I especially loaded up on Pfizer (PFE 17.82 +1.43), as they make Viagra."

Some said the rally would likely be short-lived, however.  "Bono's wife is going to find out about this and go ballistic.  That's the problem with this kind of partying, the longer-term hangover,"  said noted contrarian Wilford X. Wattleneck.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at October 28, 2008 04:01 PM (WhFvm)

5 Dave, angling for plebian's job!

Posted by: doubleplusundead at October 28, 2008 04:58 PM (1xqu1)

6 Heh, not at all.  First, my little piece isn't satire, it's topical humor.  Second, I'm not nearly as funny as plebian.  I almost started a blog once just to do the celeb inspired market commentary, but a one-trick-pony isn't much of a blog.

Posted by: Hermit Dave at October 28, 2008 05:25 PM (WhFvm)

7 a one-trick-pony isn't much of a blog

HuhCould have fooled me.

Posted by: Mrs. Peel at October 28, 2008 07:53 PM (8CGjC)

8 Peel, I was going to make that exact same point, with those two exact sites and FAILblog.

Posted by: doubleplusundead at October 28, 2008 08:31 PM (1xqu1)

9 Heh, great minds think alike.

Posted by: Mrs. Peel at October 28, 2008 08:34 PM (8CGjC)

10 Yeah, but those are theme blogs.  They can have as many posts as people have good photos / ideas.  They're not just a one-a-day kind of thing. 

Posted by: Hermit Dave at October 28, 2008 08:35 PM (WhFvm)

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