I have always been a Braves fan. I was a fan when they lost 100 games and were terrible throughout the 80's, and I was still a fan in the 90's when they went on their unprecedented division-title-winning run. During this time, they won exactly one World Series.

I am also a Colts fan. Over the last several seasons, the Colts were a super-scary team in the regular season, only to fall flat in the playoffs. During Manning's impressive tenure, the Colts have won exactly one Superbowl, and that one only barely.

Both teams have a very similar flaw: they peak too early. The regular season is impressive, but then they fail in the postseason.

I thought of this as I read the recent polls showing McCain and Obama virtually tied in the presidential race. This really shouldn't be: McCain is the successor to an unpopular president during an economic crisis not well-loved by his party, while Obama is the fresh face adored at home and abroad who has captured hearts and minds all across the political scene.

Yet consider this: in 2006 the Democrats captured congress thanks in no small part to widespread Republican incompetence and corruption. The electorate had had enough of GOP foolishness, and rewarded Democrats with their chance to run things, because the Dems promised they'd do better.

Their results? Not so spectacular, and not terribly different than their predecessors. A minimum-wage hike, some corruption scandalry (from both parties), several high-profile losses to a lame-duck president, and now stonewalling into a recess in the face of energy-price spiking Voters in the center (which include me) are seemingly faced with two choices:

Republicans, who are saying "we were stupid, but now we're smarter," versus Democrats, who are saying "we were smarter, but now we're stupid."

Which of those sound like the group that's peaking at this very moment? Thus the sports analogy about momentum:

The mid-term elections were very much the regular season, and Democrats won a resounding success. But now it's the postseason, and having floundered away their advantage (think of it as squandering a bye week) the Democrats have got to be worried that they're about to fumble an eminently winnable election.

Is it possible the Democrats (and Obama) have peaked too early?

Posted by: plebian at 04:23 PM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
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