October 06, 2008

Losing the Narrative (Severe Pessimism Warning)

We lost it and now we're going to lose.  Big.  You don't have to be Eeyore to see it anymore, either. 

After the Palin selection, the energy of the GOP base rose to a level that almost convinced me we could win. After a month to beat Obama's drum, the media shut that party down.  Then the economy gift-wrapped the narrative and gave it to them.

No chance now.  None.  My previous predictions of a 5% loss for McCain and a margin of 40+ in the Electoral Vote will look rather optimistic in a month.

McCain says he's going to go after Obama on Fannie/Freddie but I guarantee it will have absolutely no effect on the election.  It is too late and besides, America has proven time and again this cycle that they just don't care about who Obama is or what he's done.  I'm not sure what mental damage is responsible for this but the evidence is clear.  If it came out tomorrow that Obama had killed a man in 1990, I'm pretty sure his poll numbers would only drop by 5-10%. 

For whatever reason, this election cycle has nothing to do with logic or truth or talent or experience.  It has to do with something... else.

Anyway, new prediction:  Barring an outrageous Obama scandal* Obama wins the by about 6% popular and nearly 70 Electoral Votes.  He'll take "safe" states like Florida and Virginia and obliterate McCain in any "contested" state.

Here is my electoral map. Obama 349 - McCain 189.  Even with Florida it would still be 322 - 216.   It's over.

 

* - a) If that existed it would be out already and b) I can't even imagine what type of scandal could take the wind out of his sails if an unrepentant terrorist friend, nazi-like pastor and absolutely no experience didn't.

Update:  What the fuck was I thinking?  Everything is awesomely awesome.

Posted by: Moron Pundit at 03:51 PM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
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