Harry: "Who's There"?

Voters: "Candygram."

In each of the three Reid-GOP matchups polled, for example, the senator would get only about one-quarter of the independent vote, according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll. The three potential Republican opponents would get more than half the independent voters' support if the race against Reid were held today: Lowden (59 percent), Tarkanian (56 percent) and Angle (53 percent).

Peplowski, the political science professor, said the independent voters will break in November for whichever political party or candidate makes the strongest case -- or they'll stay home. In the past couple of elections, non-partisan voters helped the Democrats win the White House and Congress, but now they've been disenchanted and are leaning more toward Republicans.

"The Republicans have got to move into the middle to get them to the polls," Peplowski said.

Brad Coker, the managing partner of Mason-Dixon, said the Republican primary race is wide open and ''any one of those three could come back on top'' with Tarkanian and Lowden neck and neck and Angle gaining a bit. He said it might come down to how much money the Republican contender is willing to spend, and both Tarkanian and Lowden have access to big bucks.

As for Reid's chances of re-election, Coker said the senator's negatives are so bad that he will have a tough time making a comeback and earning more than 40 percent of the vote come November.

Coker noted that Reid's fate is tied to the fate of the Democrats and President Barack Obama, which could be bad news since the Oval Office resident's popularity has been plunging. Obama's favorable rating dropped to 34 percent in the latest Mason-Dixon poll compared to 44 percent last month and 55 percent in May. His unfavorables climbed from 30 percent in May to 46 percent now.

"I think it all ties together because Reid is Washington and Obama is Washington," Coker said in an interview. "Right now, you've got a three-headed Democratic monster between (House Speaker Nancy) Pelosi, Reid and Obama. And Pelosi has never been popular nationally. And Reid has become progressively or steadily less popular."

Republicans are licking their chops at the idea of Reid taking a fall.

Brian Walsh of the National Republican Senatorial Committee wondered after Dodd bowed out whether the White House would push Reid to ''consider an early retirement instead of facing a forced retirement in November."

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