1 I don't see any way for there not to be war.  I'm far more afraid now than I ever was in the bad old days of the USSR

2 Well, before there's any more pessimism, it's worth remembering that we somehow avoided nuclear annihilation during the Cold War despite plenty of chances for it to happen.  That may have been our Get Out of Jail Free card, but it does give me a little hope.

Still, there are so many flashpoints. 

-Israel vs. Iran and/or Turkey
-North Korea vs. South Korea
-Russia vs. The Former USSR
-US-Mexican border
-most of South America, apparently
-Muslims in Europe

Africa actually seems relatively quiet for the moment (the horrors in Sudan, Somalia, and Congo/Zaire seemingly have reached their conclusions).  Pakistan and India are still successfully not killing each other, which is a miracle itself.  Thailand's revolt seems to have been ended. 

Remember, though: it's veterans and Tea Party members who are the biggest threat.

3

Africa can't do jack shit to anyone except some local piracy, which can easily be ended with the shelling of a few ports.  As western aid to Africa dries up due to the west being bankrupt, I fully expect Africa to degenerate into complete anarchy with mass starvation, etc., but they can't really export their problems.

Iran is the biggest potential global threat IMO, and North Korea is the biggest wild card.  South America is only really dangerous if some of the nations there extend their Iranian ties.

China is also a potential issue (especially with their excess male population), but they've never shown a major inclination to be expansionist.  They want a few of 'their' territories back, of course, and they've mucked around in Vietnam and Korea in the past, but given the tensions among various Asian ethnicities, they'd have a problem with the locals very quickly if they started something big.

4

I think Russia and Mongolia have to worry about China long term, they want land and they can only get it where they can walk to it.

 

Invading Indo-China would be a colossal pain in the neck for very little usable land. Especially since you know we would be arming the Vietnamese and Cambodians (which the former VC would find hilarious) and we would leave Russia on their own. They want to be badasses? Good, then don't come whining at us.

Going to war with the US over US territory is about silly. Our navy is too powerful for them to send over enough transportion to make it feasible.

Russia and Mongolia, on the other hand, are right next door, walking distance away. And  China has been making noises and inroads in the Vladivostok region for at least the decade I've been paying attention.

Heinlein figured the 21st century's wars would be between the East and West. He might not have known how technology would go, but he surely knew people.

5 In the  mean time, China loves to screw with us, the weaker we are the more free hand they have in the world and they happier  they are.

6 Siberia is going to end up in China's hands, either by Putin selling it to them (which I don't really see happening) or by China taking it.  China needs land.  Siberia is right there.  The Russians can't do shit to stop China other than nukes.  Annnd there's a happy way to start the morning.

7

See, I'm not so sure that's a bad thing, except for wind patterns I guess.

A nukular war between China and Russia would shut those two up for a while and, Saudi Arabia and Iran notwithstanding, they're the cause of much of the problems in the world over the last 50+ years.  

So long as the fallout doesn't come here, we're cool.

The other good thing is that it would be hard for Obama to choose which thugocrat to back.

8

In about 24 months i expect a couple of wars within the USA borders, too: one with muslims and the other with paramilitaries on the mexican border.  The current admin appears weak and silent on these threats as well, but i suspect/fear/believe they are fomenting both external and internal wars, and the internal will be allowed to burn freely in the months before the election.  I don't think we would have to count the votes from TX, AZ or NM if they were under  emergency military control.

Martial law and constant terrorism would be really annoying.  All out nuke exchange i can deal with, 'cause i have been playing Fallout-3 on the Very Hard setting for a while now and i think i can handle it. 

9

"All out nuke exchange i can deal with, 'cause i have been playing Fallout-3 on the Very Hard setting for a while now and i think i can handle it."

If only real life had VATS.

10 Yeah, the only problem with real life is you only get one guy.

11 In real live the corpse run is a bitch.

12

If there is one constant that can be learned by even a cursory inspection of human history, it is that war is always inevitable.  We haven't been able to dodge that one truth yet.  We've also been pretty unsuccessful in making them any less horrific or long-lasting.  In the new global society, there is no war that is not a world war.  I'm of the opinion that Korea should have been a candidate for the moniker "World War Three."  One would be pretty hard pressed to not find someone without a horse in that race.  Any conflict in today's world, with the exception of a war within the boundaries of the African continent, would almost surely erupt into a world-wide conflict, if not in geographic area, then in the players involved either overtly or covertly. 

The big question is "who will be the enemy?" and my biggest fear is that this will be as difficult to define as the enemy in our current struggles.  They will probably not all fight under a flag, or even in a uniform, and many of them will be among us when the fighting starts.  Gone are the days when Americans could feel relatively insulated from the fighting by the comfort of two oceans.  This war will be fought in our fields and back alleys and malls and airports, and none of us will ever be the same. 

History has proven that war is not an "if" but a "when" and "how many were killed." 

That being said - Russia won't sell Siberia.  China won't invade Russia.  The North Koreans will go on being crazy like a fox, but not stupid enough to start a war that they know they will lose.  Mexico will descend into chaos, but as soon as that chaos starts to earnestly and blatantly violate our sovereign borders, it will be beaten back. 

The problem will start in the Middle East, and it will probably involve Iran.  Time will tell who's side everyone is on in this coming conflict, but I think it will be shocking in that we will likely end up having a massive disruption in who we thought our allies and our enemies really are.  Europe is up for grabs, for instance, which begs the question - will we side with Israel or Europe when the big to-do erupts? 

13 Let's be cynical for a minute (if we're not already): how hard is it to understand that regardless of what one thinks of Israel, it needs to believe that it has a powerful "friend" if it's going to be restrained.  If it helps you, think of it as being like North Korea.  It has nuclear weapons.  Even a cursory understanding of Jewish history shows that they're used to being reviled and attacked and that when cornered they will absolutely lash out with whatever means are at their disposal. 

Then again, let's say you see Syria, Turkey, Iran, and Saudi Arabia as problems as well as Israel.  A cynic would let them overrun Israel and let Israel nuke them all.  Only the last two of those have significant oil, and nuking Tehran and Riyadh is probably more helpful to getting that oil than leaving the current regimes in place.

I'm not one who holds an idealistic view of the State of Israel: I don't think it's a proper re-establishment of Ancient Israel and I don't think they're infallible (see: USS Liberty).  That said, it's a democratic country that seems pretty happy to just exist and isn't all that inclined to get all grabby on neighboring lands without severe provocation. That distinguishes from most of its neighbors, who would surely be attacking each other and establishing further tyrannies if Israel suddenly disappeared.  I don't think Israel "deserves" American support, but I think it is unquestionably in America's interests to support Israel's right to exist and its efforts to do so.